01 · Capability
What systems can do
Verifiable advances in autonomy, reasoning, research, replication, and real-world task completion.
The tracker is taking shape
Measuring the distance between capability and control.
AI Disruption Forecast is an independent, evidence-based tracker following the milestones, probabilities, and real-world signals between frontier AI capability, systemic disruption, and meaningful human control.
What the public tracker will follow
A record of what changed, when it changed, and why it matters.
Forecast revisions will be timestamped, sourced, and explained rather than quietly rewritten after events occur.
02 · Disruption
What leaves the lab
Deployment across employment, infrastructure, government, finance, security, and everyday institutions.
03 · Control
Whether oversight keeps pace
Evidence of effective safeguards, institutional adaptation, loss of control, and emerging systemic risk.
Build status
Launching when the evidence framework is ready.... not before.
The first public release will include the core milestone tracker, forecast layers, methodology, and a traceable evidence log.
Visual framework
Established
Milestone architecture
In review
Evidence archive
Building
Public dashboard
Forthcoming